India’s Foreign Policy and Options to Wriggle out of Current Geopolitical Scenario

Today India finds itself surrounded by Hostile Neighbours, which an Year ago were friendly and promoting India’s cause towards a growing Asian Giant and as an alternative to Dragon’s dominance in Asia. So what has changed since then ,here we have a look :

1. Dragon has brought its Debt Diplomacy to the table in full force,it has loosened its deep pockets, it has literally bought off India’s neighbours like Nepal and looking for some more leverage by doing the same with Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
2. India finds itself in tough spot as the Dragon has come out All Guns Blazing, buying off India’s allies and hammering away at India’s neighbours.Pakistan was always with the Dragon as it is a Debt ridden country and needs them. Now China has helped Nepalese Communist Party stay in power by preventing an Internal coup against Nepalese PM Oli and in return Oli has stirred up Nationalistic fervour in the country and is instigating India at China’s behest.
3. China is looking towards Bangladesh now, offering them tariff reductions in Trade, looking to employ the same ploy it used against Nepal, cut off its dependence on India, make them reliant on Chinese money and products and then leverage enmity with India.
4. China already has great economic ties with Sri Lanka including Hambantota port on lease, although the new Gotabaya Rajapakse’s Sri lankan Govt identified the Chinese trap of Debt dependence and slowed down Chinese investment drastically, but is has already entered the Danger zone as Sri Lanka’s location on the map is too strategic to be left out of Dragon’s net.
5. This way China is turning India’s neighbours hostile one by one, mounting pressure on India to give in to Chinese Transgressions, closing all routes for India to bail out , forcing India to slow down development work in Ladakh and other border areas as it is miffed with Modi Govt’s proactive approach towards National Security especially J&K and Ladakh area. China is insecure about its hold on Aksai Chin and Shaksgam valley which was ceded to China by Pakistan and hence wants India to not build roads and infrastructure in this area.It also wants clear route for its CPEC where China has already pumped in millions and wants to connect CPEC with Xinjiang by occupying Galwan valley and denying India access to DBO sector.

Since Independence, India has maintained its stance of Non Alignment towards any International alliance or specific country, it has treated all countries equally and refused to be part of any one block of nations thereby maintaining neutrality in its approach. After 2014 though when Modi Govt came to power there has been just that slight shift in India’s foreign policy.India has maintained close ties with United States and its allies including France, Israel,Saudi Arabia,Japan,UK,South Korea and Australia and looked to reduce dependence on Russia and China.Few examples that show this shift are :

1. India has diversified its Defence spending and import of critical weapons and Technology which used to be heavily reliant on Russia earlier.Now India has purchased Chinook and Apache helicopters, the M555 155 mm howitzers from USA , Drones and missiles from Israel,Rafael fighter aircraft from France.
2. India has also diversified importers of its Crude oil (India imports 90% of its Crude oil requirements)which earlier was too reliant on Iraq,Kuwait and Iran. Now India has reduced imports of Crude oil from these nations and increased purchases from USA,Saudi Arabia,Venezuela.
3. India is also looking to sign Free Trade Agreements with EU and other South-American and European countries for free flow of trade.Earlier in the year India opted out of RCEP as it would have given China further access to our domestic markets and new means to dump cheap Chinese goods into India via other smaller nations.This too miffed China and is one of the reasons of China becoming hostile towards India.

Dragon has been watching India’ moves closely since 2014 and did not give a knee jerk reaction, it is miffed with Abrogation of Art 370 and 35A from J&K,India’s close ties with USA and its allies and India moving towards path of Alignment with America,Indian politicians’ aggressive posturing towards claiming back POK and Aksai Chin,growing Indian economy and presence in Asia,India opting out of RCEP and most recent decision of Indian govt scrutinising Chinese investments in Indian companies.All of this hurt China’s ambitions.

Now India needs to :

1. Increase the pace of development work in Ladakh and Eastern states sharing borders with China including Sikkim and Arunachal,develop border roads right upto LAC in these areas and look to settle local people in places where currently there is no habitation.This will strengthen India’s hold in these border areas and create bonhomie amongst locals and help develop local economy and employment.
2. India needs to now aggressively pursue ties with USA, Japan,Australia and other European nations which are like minded,shed its thinking of Non Alignment, increase Defence spending,build border infra and induct modern weapons into its Defence forces.India should now look at China as greater adversary than Pakistan as China has 4 times the economy size than India and military might and poses greater challenge to India than Pakistan which is down in the drains and surviving on Chinese and World Aid.
3. India needs to pursue its dream of 10 trillion economy relentlessly as a bigger and robust Indian economy will safeguard India against Chinese too as no country will look to disrupt ties with such economic power and will be forced to maintain good relations.
4. India needs to be wary before it bans all Chinese imports as this will hurt India more than China,India needs to first closely look at unnecessary imports from China, impose heavy duties on these products first meanwhile create self reliance to counter other critical imports from China, build close ties with other Anti China countries like Taiwan,Hong Kong and Japan and diversify imports slowly.

India now needs to stop giving a friendly hand to China as it has always created hurdles in India’s road to becoming self reliant and an Asian Superpower. It has denied India permanent UNSC seat for very long time,India ignored this and kept promoting friendly ties , China denied naming Masood Azhar as Global terrorist for long at UNSC before giving in on May 2019. China always supported Pakistan economically and militarily, now is the time India identifies China as greater adversary than Pakistan and look to advance its own strategic interests.